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(969) Toronto Blue Jays at (970) Seattle Mariners

Event:
(969) Toronto Blue Jays at (970) Seattle Mariners
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 7, 2024 4PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-108
Play:
3% – (969) Toronto Blue Jays at (970) Seattle Mariners Total Under 7.5 (-108) J Berrios (RHP), G Kirby (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

3% TOR/SEA under 7.5 (-108) listed/listed

  •  TOR offense:
    • L30 days: 17th in wRC+ / 21st OPS / 18th wOBA
    • On the road: 23rd in all above categories
    • Vs RHP: 20th / 22nd / 20th
  •  Kirby (SEA)
    • L5 starts: 1.65 ERA / 0.82 WHIP
    • L4 home starts: 107 ERA / 0.86 WHIP
    • 9ER allowed in L7 starts
    • vs bottom 10 lineups (TOR qualifies):
      • 1.86 ERA / 0.96 WHIP
  •  if TOR offense is bad, SEA is terrible:
    • L14 days: second worst in MLB wRC+ / OPS / wOBA
    • At-home full season: 24th / 29th / 29th
    • Vs RHP L14:26th / 27th / 27th
    • L7 RHP to start against them: 1.34 ERA / 0.84 WHIP
  •  Berrios:
    • Mediocre to below average L5 starts, but look at who he faced:
      • HOU / NYY / CLE (2x) / MIL. All those teams have excellent offenses
    • Vs Bottom 10 offenses he is excellent, and we expect him to show that today:
      • 1.60 ERA / 0.95 WHIP
    • SEA ranks 25th in baseball vs his pitch mix
  •  No wager is without risk, so what is the main concern in this game?
    • TOR Bullpen
      • However, no reliever has pitched b2b games so they should have the full arsenal.
      • With Kirby on the bump, very likely the bullpen will only be needed for 2 innings

good to -130

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