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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(967) Baltimore Orioles at (968) Oakland Athletics

Event:
(967) Baltimore Orioles at (968) Oakland Athletics
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 7, 2024 4PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-103
Play:
3% – (967) Baltimore Orioles at (968) Oakland Athletics Total Under 8.0 (-103) G Rodriguez (LHP), M Spence (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

3% Under Orioles/A’s (4:07 ET): Oakland exploded for 19 runs yesterday in a somewhat shocking rout of Baltimore that improved the A’s head-to-head record to 3-2 against the AL East leaders this season. So it’s probably an opportune time to fade this Oakland lineup, as this team a) doesn’t go Over in B2B games very often and b) will be facing Orioles’ ace Grayson Rodriguez on Sunday. In terms of not going Over in B2B games, the A’s have done that just twice since June 1st and only four times since mid-May. The 19 runs yesterday were their 2nd most in a game all season, trailing only a 20-4 win over Miami back on May 4th. The A’s promptly scored just three runs the following day. 

Home runs have been aplenty for this Oakland team of late. But Rodriguez has surrendered just 10 HR’s in 15 starts this season and is allowing an average of just two runs over his L10 starts. That number would be even lower if not for an uncharacteristic blow-up at Houston on 6/21. There have been only three starts all season where Rodriguez has allowed more than 2 ER. Last time out, he tossed 6 ⅓ shutout innings in Seattle, also giving up only two hits. The A’s lineup he faces on Sunday is the third-lowest scoring in all of baseball (ahead of only the White Sox and Marlins). 

Now Baltimore had 16 hits themselves yesterday, but they too should be in store for some offensive regression as they face Mitch Spence, who allowed only one run (in 5 ⅓ IP) his last time out. Spence has faced the Orioles just one time previous to this and that was back on 4/26 when he tossed three no-hit innings. The A’s bullpen is actually pretty good, so not really concerned when Spence comes out of the game. Save for a 7-game Over stretch in May, the A’s are 49-32-3 to the Under this season. Just think this is a good spot to fade both lineups after the odd result yesterday. 3% Under Orioles/A’s (Play to 7.5)

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