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Ben Burns

Ben Burns

(957) Arizona Diamondbacks at (958) San Diego Padres

Event:
(957) Arizona Diamondbacks at (958) San Diego Padres
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 7, 2024 4PM EDT
Play Rating:
5%
Odds:
-154
Play:
5% – San Diego Padres -154 R Nelson (RHP), D Cease (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

(5%) SAN DIEGO. They may have lost yesterday but the Padres have been playing really well the past few weeks. They're still 12-4 their past 16. They've got themselves in position that they're currently in good shape for a Wildcard spot to the playoffs. Certainly, they should be "buyers" at the upcoming trade deadline. The Padres know they need to keep winning and I expect them to bounce back and close out this series with a victory.

Opposing hitters are only batting .187 against Cease in seven daytime starts this season. In that 38 innings span, Cease has an impressive 51 K's. While Cease struggled at Texas in his last start, he was outstanding in his previous start, which was his most recent here at home. In that 6/26 game, also the finale of a series, Cease allowed just one hit through seven brilliant shutout innings. 

The Dbax know how tough Cease can be. In two starts against them, one with the White Sox in 2022 and once a couple of months ago, as a Padre, Cease has a dominant 1.84 ERA. San Diego won that May 3rd game by a score of 7-1. 

Cease should get solid run support once again as Nelson has a 5.42 ERA and 1.56 WHIP this season. In seven appearances against the Padres, he's got a 6.95 ERA. That includes an ugly 8.78 ERA the past six of those. The Padres were 5-1 in those games. In two starts against the Padres this season, Nelson has a horrible 9.72 ERA. The Padres beat him 13-1 here last month. This one may be closer but I expect the end result to be the same. *Reduce to 4% if higher than -165

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