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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(905) Philadelphia Phillies at (906) Atlanta Braves: Spencer Schwellenbach Strikeouts Thrown

Event:
(905) Philadelphia Phillies at (906) Atlanta Braves: Spencer Schwellenbach Strikeouts Thrown
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 6, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
2%
Odds:
-120
Play:
2% – Spencer Schwellenbach Strikeouts Thrown Over 4.5 (-120) R Suarez (LHP), S Schwellenbach (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

2% Spencer Schwellenbach Over 4.5 K’s (7:15 ET): I do not hit the MLB prop market all that often (during the regular season) but want to take Schwellenbach Over his strikeout prop of 4.5 Saturday night against the Phillies. Now, from a won-loss perspective, Schwellenbach has hardly been “knocking ‘em dead.” In fact, the Braves are just 1-5 so far with him on the mound including a 4-2 loss to Pittsburgh (as big -189 ML favorites) his last time out. Schwellenbach also has a 5.68 ERA, but take note of a 3.90 xERA, so things have not necessarily been as bad as they may seem. 

That said, I’m not interested in taking the Braves’ righty to beat the team with the best record in baseball, at close to an even money price. But when you consider Schwellenbach has 20 strikeouts in his L3 starts (16 IP), asking him to strike out at least five Phillies doesn’t seem like all that big a deal. Considering Schwellenbach has cleared this number in each of those last three starts, I’m surprised the number is so low. Especially since the Phils have a K-rate of 23.4% against righties over the last month.  Overall, the Phillies have struck out a total of 30 times in the last three games. 2% Spencer Schwellebach Over 4.5 K’s (Play only at 4.5) 

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