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(907) Milwaukee Brewers at (908) Los Angeles Dodgers

(907) Milwaukee Brewers at (908) Los Angeles Dodgers
July 6, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
3% – (907) Milwaukee Brewers at (908) Los Angeles Dodgers Total Over 8.5 (-118) Action

3% Take the LA Dodgers -Milwaukee Brewers OVER (#907-908) (action)

Edwin Moscoso is calling balls and strikes tonight.  He went 11-4 to the Over behind home plate as a rookie umpire in 2020, 18-13 to the Over in 2021, 21-16 to the Over in 2022, 23-10 to the Over last year and he’s 11-6 to the Over in 17 games calling balls and strikes this year.  Add it all up and we’re talking about an umpire who squeezes the strike zone to the tune of a 84-49 (63%) clip for Overs over the last five years, 34-16 (70%) to the Over in the last two years; an Under-the-Radar trend worth noting. 

When the bottom of the Dodgers lineup is hitting (like they are right now), LA is a dead nuts OVER team.  They’re 7-0 to the Over in their last seven games, pounding out an average of six runs per game during that span.  Milwaukee is trending Over as well, 9-5 to the Over with one push in their last 15 games. The Brewers bats, while not as hot as the Dodgers, have avoided being shut down -- they’ve scored three runs or more all 15 of those games.

This is an ‘action’ wager based on current form, but it’s worth noting that neither starter is trustworthy today.  James Paxton has only two quality starts in his last seven trips to the hill and he’s been absolutely lit up multiple times during that span.  Freddie Peralta has excellent numbers of late but look at the lineups he’s been facing, based on OPS numbers: the Cubs (#21), Rangers (#18), Angels (#19), Reds (#23), Tigers (#25), White Sox (#29), Cubs (#21) and Marlins (#30) in his last eight starts.  The Dodgers rank #1 in OPS; MUCH tougher competition compared to what he’s been facing.  Both bullpens were used extensively last night.  On a HOT day in LA, expect crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Take the OVER.

Line Parameter: 3% at 8.5 or lower, 2.5% at 9 or higher

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