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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(903) St. Louis Cardinals at (904) Washington Nationals

Event:
(903) St. Louis Cardinals at (904) Washington Nationals
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 6, 2024 4PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-123
Play:
4% – Washington Nationals -123 L Lynn (RHP), M Gore (LHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

Going to try again with MacKenzie Gore.  Was correct to pass on playing Gore earlier this week against the Mets though Gore had a great start (5.2 innings 1 run 8 strikeouts 1 walk) in an eventual Nationals extra innings loss.  

Gore hasn't won since June 14th against the Marlins but turned a corner in his last start and he has been streaky so I'm hoping he can ride that momentum to another strong outing here. 

Lance Lynn has been good in his last two starts but he's due for a blow up and he's due to regress from a 3.59 ERA which he hasn't been able to maintain since 2021.  

I'm also not buying the Cardinals, they had a monster June and are 3-1 to start July to improve to 46-41 on the season but the underlying metrics still suggest this is a very average baseball team.

I see both of these teams trending toward the .500 mark (which means the Nationals are probably a short term “buy” and the Cardinals are a “sell” going forward based on current records).

The Cardinals pulled off the big comeback to win in extra innings last night but used 5 key arms in the process.  The bullpen is probably the biggest “edge” the Cardinals have in this matchup so with yesterday's usage being an equalizer I give a nice edge to Gore + being at home + bounce back spot here.

Play on Nationals -123 for 4% (or 4 units)

***Going to see how some of the earlier stuff plays out.   Good chance I add something in one of the late MLB games***

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