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Dwayne Bryant

Dwayne Bryant

(925) San Francisco Giants at (926) Cleveland Guardians

Event:
(925) San Francisco Giants at (926) Cleveland Guardians
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 6, 2024 4PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-124
Play:
4% – Cleveland Guardians -124 K Harrison (LHP), L Allen (LHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

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4:10 PM ET -- MLB 

925 San Francisco Giants   
926 Cleveland Guardians

Play: 926 CLEVELAND -124    

List Pitchers: Harrison & Allen                        

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters: 
4% play at -135 or better 
3% play at -136 to -145
2% play at -146 to -150

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.  

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE(S):

Play AGAINST underdogs on at least a 2-game win streak if it's not the last game of a series and their starter produced a Quality Start in his last outing.  26-9 (74%) since April 30th.

Cleveland is 6-0 in home day games against lefty starters this season.

Cleveland is 18-5 this season if it's Game 1 or 2 of a series and the opposing starter walked no more than 1 batter the last time he faced them.

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