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Bryan Leonard

Bryan Leonard

(929) Kansas City Royals at (930) Colorado Rockies

Event:
(929) Kansas City Royals at (930) Colorado Rockies
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 6, 2024 9PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
154
Play:
3% – Colorado Rockies +154 S Lugo (RHP), A Gomber (LHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

930 Kansas City at Colorado

Seth Lugo is having a career year for the Royals. He was an excellent signing for the Kansas City as he fits his home stadium perfectly. A fly ball pitcher in a home run crushing ballpark. Saturday unfortunately he is playing in quite the opposite location, as the altitude in Denver leads to the ball flying further. A bad situation for the fly ball pitcher, as this is the biggest outfield in the majors. When looking at his advanced stats he is also due for some negative regression. His ERA is a sparkling 2.17, yet his xERA is at 3.72. Basically 1.5 runs worse than what he has accomplished thus far. 

Austin Gomber takes the mound for the host. We know what we are going to get when he takes the hill in this building. He’s an innings eater who has good extension and doesn’t walk many batters. He doesn’t have the talent of Lugo, but he has a ton of experience on this mound. 

The Royals wRC+ is 14% better than that of the Rockies. So the offensive edge goes to the visitor. But Kansas City is still 5% worse offensively than an average MLB team. So don’t expect the KC bats to all of a sudden break out. Nice value on the Rockies who play far better at home than on the road.

PLAY COLORADO

Good to +140

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