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(961) Boston Red Sox at (962) New York Yankees

(961) Boston Red Sox at (962) New York Yankees
July 5, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
3% – (961) Boston Red Sox at (962) New York Yankees Total Over 8.0 (-113) Action

3% Take Boston - New York OVER (#961-962) (action).

I’m 10-0 with my last ten MLB totals, and this excerpt from several recent write-ups still rings true today: 

 “MLB games are not independent of one another, particularly when it comes to totals.  Overs beget more Overs -- hot lineups and worn down bullpens don’t disappear into thin air.  Similarly, Unders beget more Unders -- cold lineups and fresh bullpens can stay that way for weeks on end. So when teams start to streak with their totals, I pay close attention, especially at this time of the season, as the bats start to heat up with the weather.

The Red Sox are 3-0 to the Over in their last three games, 8-1 to the Over in their last nine.  Boston’s bats are hot, pounding out six runs or more in all three games of their just concluded series in Miami.  The Yankees have scored 37 runs in their last six contests - more than six runs per game.  New York, too, is trending heavily towards the Over of late: 8-1 to the Over in their last nine games, 23-7-1 to the Over in their last 31 ballgames.  Clearly, these are streaks worth riding!

This is an ‘action’ wager based on these two teams' current form, but it's surely worth noting that Red Sox starter Tanner Houck has come back to earth after his ridiculous start -- he allowed only 16 earned runs allowed in 78 innings of work over his first dozen outings.  In June, Houck went 4-1 to the Over in his five starts and he’s coming off an outing where he allowed three home runs after allowing an unsustainably low two homers in his first 16 starts.  Nestor Cortez, too, was very hittable in June compared to hit hot start in April and May. Current Red Sox have hit .371 against Cortes with a 1.075 OPS.  Neither bullpen is particularly fresh behind the starters.  The Yanks - Sox series in June -- their only previous meetings this season -- produced nine runs or more in every game, nary an Under in the mix. Expect more of the same tonight!  Take the OVER.

Line Parameter: 3% at 8 or lower, 2.5% at 8.5 or higher

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