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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(225589) Turkey at (225590) Netherlands

Event:
(225589) Turkey at (225590) Netherlands
Sport/League:
UEFA
Date/Time:
July 6, 2024 3PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-130
Play:
4% – (225589) Turkey at (225590) Netherlands REGULATION Total Over 2.5 (-130)
Result:
Win
Analysis

4% Over Turkey/Netherlands (3:00 ET): This will be the third straight time I’m taking the Over in a match involving Turkey. Tough to argue with this decision, based on the results so far. The Over is 4-0 in Turkey matches so far in the Euro Cup with an average of 3.46 xG scored. Now we did need a stoppage time winner from the Crescent Stars to get Over 2.5 in the final Group Stage fixture (vs. Czechia). But it was pretty easy getting Over the same number in the Round of 16 when they defeated Austria. Merih Demiral delivered the quickest opening goal in Euro Cup knockout stage history, scoring in the opening minute and the match ended up 2-1 by the 66th minute. So, unlike Turkey fans, I did need to sweat out that heart-stopping save (best of the tournament so far) from goalkeeper Mert Gunok at the end. 

There are a couple of key takeaways from that Austria-Turkey match. One is that Turkey was fortunate to win, at least based on xG numbers. They lost that battle 3.19-1.36. Two is that the man who scored both goals against Austria (Demiral) will be out for this match (suspended). But that’s really not that big a deal as Demiral had previously scored only twice in 47 international appearances, so he was unlikely to score here anyway. Five other players on Turkey have found the back of the net in this tournament and captain Hakan Calhanoglu (suspended last match) will be back in the starting XI on Saturday. Kerem Akturkoglu is another player to watch. Again, all four matches involving Turkey in this tournament have seen more than three total goals scored. They have scored 7 goals so far themselves.

It’s actually the backend where Turkey needs to be most concerned heading into the quarterfinals. Not only have they conceded in all four matches, but we're talking about at least 1.68 xGA in every match to this point. Now Turkey will face a Netherlands side that is off a dominant 3-0 win over Romania. Aside from the 0-0 draw with France, the Dutch have scored multiple goals in every other Euro Cup match. So it’s a situation where 7 of the 8 matches in this tournament featuring these teams have gone Over 2.5. In fact, both sides can lay claim to having scored three times in one match themselves AND conceding three times in one match. There is no reason not to expect plenty of goals from this quarterfinal fixture. 4% Over Turkey/Netherlands (2.5)

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