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Andrew McInnis

Andrew McInnis

(781) Ottawa Redblacks at (782) Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Event:
(781) Ottawa Redblacks at (782) Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Sport/League:
CFL
Date/Time:
July 5, 2024 8PM EDT
Play Rating:
5%
Odds:
-110
Play:
5% – Winnipeg Blue Bombers -2.5 (-110)
Result:
Win
Analysis

Winnipeg Blue Bombers -2.5 (-110)…(5%) Good to -3. 4% at -3.5 or higher. 

Backing the winless Blue Bombers for a 5% play? Seems crazy right? No. This is a massive discount that I will not ignore in this match-up as the Blue Bombers host the Redblacks in a revenge match-up from earlier this season. 

The Bombers might be 0-4, but this -2.5 price tag is extreme. The Redblacks have defeated the Ti-Cats (walk off field goal) this very Bombers team and lost big time against the Alouettes. The combined record for the teams the Reblacks have defeated is 0-8, of course one of those teams is Winnipeg, but I feel Winnipeg has progressivley gotten better and the -2.5 is far too much of a discount, considering the price practically labels these teams as equals if you account for the home field advantage. 

The Reblacks rank dead last in yards allowed per game, #7 in passing yards allowed per game and #7 in points allowed per game. Although the Blue Bombers are off to a slow start and will now be sending out their #2 QB Chris Streveler, I'm confident that between their run game and the several offensive weapons they have at the receiving position they'll be able to put up points on the Reblacks defence. 

Streveler threw for 170 yards despite coming in late in the game and he led the team on a game tying drive where he threw several accurate passes an also ran the ball himself. Given that this time the Bombers will have time to make a game plan for Chris and he won't be just coming in during a game, he should have a ton of success and be able to both run and throw against the Redblacks. 

Against a very good Calgary team, both Wolitarsky & Demski had big games an Oliveira had over 60 yards on the ground, they did a great job spreading the ball around and that's what I think happens again for Winnipeg at home except this time they get the win. 

When these teams last met there was an hour long delay due to poor weather when there was ony 2 minutes remaining. The Bombers marched the field when they returned to play, but then failed on three attempts to get in the endzone even though they were on the ten yard line. 

This line of -2.5 is about as big an overreaction as we'll get. The Blue Bombers even with a backup QB are still a far superior team to Ottawa and we'll see that this Friday when we cash our big 5% play. 

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