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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(921) Baltimore Orioles at (922) Seattle Mariners

Event:
(921) Baltimore Orioles at (922) Seattle Mariners
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 4, 2024 4PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
100
Play:
3% – 1H Baltimore Orioles -0.5 (+100) C Burnes (RHP), B Miller (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

3% Baltimore F5 -0.5 (4:10 ET): Seattle has clearly been a team to fade recently as they’ve lost four in a row and 10 of their last 13 games overall. As a result, their once 10-game lead in the American League West has been whittled down to two as the Mariners’ nosedive has coincided with a surge from hard-charging Houston. (You also can’t forget about LY’s World Series Champions, Texas). Unfortunately for M’s fans, I think things continue to get worse before they get better, at least early on today, as they face one of the best starters in all of baseball, that being Baltimore’s Corbin Burnes. 

Please note that this is not only a F5 innings bet, but I’m also playing the run line, laying the -0.5 with Burnes and the Orioles. Burnes comes into the 4th of July sporting a 9-3 record and a 2.28 ERA, which is third best in all of MLB. He’s won six of his last seven decisions overall and has a 2-0 lifetime record vs Seattle (1.59 ERA). Back on May 19th, Burnes faced the Mariners and all he allowed was one (unearned) run while striking out 11 batters. I understand that Seattle starter Bryce Miller has a 1.99 ERA at home, but his xERA for the season (overall) is 4.21 and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. The bottom line is that, as per usual with Burnes on the mound, Baltimore has a substantial starting pitching edge in today’s matchup. 

Burnes being one of the best pitchers in all of baseball (by just about any metric) would probably be enough to lean on here. But the Orioles also have a much better offense compared to the Mariners as well. Six different hitters on the O’s come into today with a wRC+ of 120 or better and this lineup has produced the most home runs and second most runs in all of baseball. Seattle is bottom third in runs scored, wOBA and wRC+. Last night, they couldn’t even score in the first five innings against Dean Kremer (managed only two hits!). Should be a similar story this afternoon. 3% Baltimore F5 -0.5 (Play to -125)

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