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Dwayne Bryant

Dwayne Bryant

(915) Houston Astros at (916) Toronto Blue Jays

Event:
(915) Houston Astros at (916) Toronto Blue Jays
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 4, 2024 1PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-112
Play:
4% – Houston Astros -112 F Valdez (LHP), C Bassitt (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

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1:07 PM ET -- MLB 

915 Houston Astros  
916 Toronto Blue Jays

Play: 915 HOUSTON -112    

List Pitchers: Valdez & Bassitt                      

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters: 
4% play at -120 or better 
3% play at -121 to -130
2% play at -131 to -135

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.  

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE(S):

Toronto is 0-7 since last season when it's past Game 3 of a series and their opponent allowed more than 5 earned runs in their starter's previous start.

Toronto is 0-7 since last season when it's past Game 3 of a series and their opponent's starter allowed at least 1 homer in his previous start.

Houston is 8-1 this season when their win percentage is higher than 46.5% and the starter of their previous opponent did not produce a Quality Start.

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