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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(225581) France at (225582) Portugal

Event:
(225581) France at (225582) Portugal
Sport/League:
UEFA
Date/Time:
July 5, 2024 3PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
137
Play:
3% – REGULATION France +137
Result:
Loss
Analysis

3% France (3:00 ET): The fact that France has yet to score a single goal from open play in Euro 2024 is obviously not encouraging. It has been a pair of own goals (one against Austria, the other vs. Belgium) as well as a Kylian Mbappe penalty (vs. Poland) that got Les Blues on the scoresheet thus far. However, it absolutely has to be pointed out that they have created nearly 7 expected goals (6.98 xG to be precise) from open play in this competition and that ranks top five amongst all sides here. The bottom line is that it’s only a matter of time before the goals start coming for Mbappe and company. 

Meanwhile, Portugal is another of the four sides in this competition to have won the xG battle in every match so far. (It’s these two + Germany & Spain). However, Ronaldo and company were taken into not only added time, but penalties, by Slovakia in the Round of 16. Ronaldo infamously missed a penalty in AET, but was then bailed out by his goalkeeper (Diogo Costa), who was a perfect 3 for 3 when the match was decided on penalties. Portugal has now gone more than 210 minutes without scoring a goal. They created just 0.85 xG in regular time vs. Slovenia. 

France is simply not the side you want to face when you are experiencing goal-scoring woes. Les Blues have also not conceded from open play in this tournament. The only goal they’ve allowed was a penalty to Poland and even that required a second try from Robert Lewandowski. In fact, that’s the lone goal conceded over the L6 matches in all competitions! Considering how Portugal seems hell-bent on forcing the ball to Ronaldo, who keeps taking bad shots (as he is desperate to score for selfish reasons), I don’t see how the attack cracks France’s seemingly impenetrable wall. I backed France against Belgium and will do so again here at a plus money price. 3% France (Play to +105)

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