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(921) Baltimore Orioles at (922) Seattle Mariners

Event:
(921) Baltimore Orioles at (922) Seattle Mariners
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 4, 2024 4PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-139
Play:
4% – Baltimore Orioles -139 C Burnes (RHP), B Miller (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

4% Take Baltimore (#921) (listed pitchers)

You know my MLB mantra -- ride the streaks, ride the hot teams, fade the cold teams.  We’ve got that here.  Baltimore is surging; 6-1 in their last seven.  Seattle is ice cold: 0-4 in their last four on this homestand, 3-10 since June 19th thanks to a lineup that can’t hit their way out of a wet paper bag right now.  Baltimore’s Corbin Burnes is a legit ace who dominated this lineup (0 earned runs, 11 K’s) when these teams met in May.  The Orioles are 7-1 in his last eight starts, four of those coming on the highway.  Over the past two years, in three starts against the Orioles potent lineup, Bryce Miller has allowed ten runs in just 15.1 innings of work, with the Mariners going 0-3 in those outings.  Miller’s last two starts have been short; he’s lost both of them.  Plain and simple -- this is chalk worth laying.  Take the Orioles.  

Line Parameter: 4% at -159 or lower, 3% at -160 or higher

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