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Pavlos Laguretos

Pavlos Laguretos

(225577) Germany at (225578) Spain

Event:
(225577) Germany at (225578) Spain
Sport/League:
UEFA
Date/Time:
July 5, 2024 12PM EDT
Play Rating:
1%
Odds:
220
Play:
1% – REGULATION Draw +220
Result:
Win
Analysis

Spain vs Germany
EURO, Friday, July 5th, 12pm ET

Play: Draw 
Odds at Time of Release: +220
Line Parameter: Playable to +200

Spain are +170 favourites, the Draw is at +220 and Germany to win is at +180, with the Asian Spread set at PK and the Asian Total set at 2.5 Goals. This is a match between two of the best teams in this tournament, and it could easily be the match-up of the final. It could really go anywhere in terms of goals, although I do expect it to be a cagey match, so you might want to consider the Under. We might see a very strategic and careful game between the two, but then again, they have very good offensive lines and this could easily blow up to 3 goals or more. Staying away from totals.

I think Spain have the better team but Germany are hosts, playing at home and it's the Last Dance for iconic midfielder Toni Kroos. And we've seen hosts get a preferential treatment by officials in past competitions, so I can't say with confidence that I have an edge here. This could really go anywhere, but it could very well be a 0-0 / 1-1 type of situation where they cancel each other out. 

Small stake bet (1u) on the Draw at +220

 

Player Prop - Fabian Ruiz (Spain) 2 or more Shots (+115)

PSG midfielder Fabian Ruiz has lowkey been on of Spain's best players in this tournament with 2 goals and 2 assists, having started all 3 matches and he has a mean left foot that he is not shy of using. He averages 3.7 shots/game and 1.7 shots on target/game, which is quite high for a midfielder. 

He took SEVEN shots against England (2 on target), 3 shots against Italy (2 on target) and 1 shot on target against Croatia. Even in the qualifiers, he averaged 2 shots/game with 0.8 Shots on Target/game in 3 matches. 

You can take Ruiz to have a shot on target at +135, 2+ SOT is at a mouth-watering +900, even Ruiz to have a shot in 1H is at -105. But the safest one of them all is to take Fabian Ruiz to have 2 or more shots (don't have to be on target) at +115 over at FanDuel, in a match where Spain might need their midfielders to step up. 

 

Take 1u on the Draw (+220) and 2u on Fabian Ruiz to have 2 or more Shots (+115), and with that tactic we need at least one hit to turn a profit.

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