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Pavlos Laguretos

Pavlos Laguretos

(225589) Turkey at (225590) Netherlands

Event:
(225589) Turkey at (225590) Netherlands
Sport/League:
UEFA
Date/Time:
July 6, 2024 3PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-128
Play:
4% – (225589) Turkey at (225590) Netherlands REGULATION Total Over 2.5 (-128)
Result:
Win
Analysis

Netherlands vs Turkey
EURO, Saturday, 3pm ET

Play: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -128
Line Parameter: Playable to -135, otherwise take the Over 2.75 Goals instead

The Netherlands had absolutely no problem in dispatching Romania, although that 3-0 didn't come as easy as it seems, as they did take an early lead at the 20th minute, but their other two goals came past the 83rd minute. Even so, the Netherlands are now 3-1 to the Over 2.5 goals in the EUROs, with the only Under in that span being the goal-less draw against the tight defense of France. They went 4-0 to the Over 2.5 goals in the recent friendlies, and went 6-2 to the Over 2.5 Goals in the EURO Qualifiers. They can easily score 3 on their own against this Turkish defense, but Turkey can also assist in the scoring. 

Turkey managed to beat Austria by 2-1, courtesy of Demiral who scored both their goals from headers. They are going to be missing Kokcu and Yuksek who are both suspended, which might complicate things in the midfield. Turkey are now 4-0 to the Over 2.5 Goals in the tournament, they were 3-2 to the Over 2.5 Goals in the friendlies, and they have a naive defense. We've said so before, this defense can make 1-2 good games out of 10, they just had a good defensive game against Austria, I doubt if they can do it again vs the Netherlands. In fact, the only reason they stood strong against Austria was that early goal that short-circuited the Austrians and pushed them out of the comfort zone. And Austria generated 2.73 xG to Turkey's 0.87 xG, and goalkeeper Gunok saved a last minute shot by Austria (that shot alone was counted for 0.97 xG, meaning that if this exact same shot was shot 100 times, the goalkeeper would save it just 3 times). Turkey lucked out against Austria, but the Netherlands are a different breed. 

I think this has the potential to be a goal-fest, in fact this must be the highest scoring match out of all 4 quarter-finals, and it all points to another Over. The last time these two met was in 2021, under different circumstances, but for context, those matches finished with 7 and 6 goals respectively, with each team winning at home. 

Take 4u on the Over 2.5 Goals (-128) in a match where the Netherlands can score 3 on their own, although Turkey can also assist in the scoring. 

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