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(235745) Brazil at (235746) Uruguay

(235745) Brazil at (235746) Uruguay
July 6, 2024 9PM EDT
Play Rating:
5% – REGULATION Uruguay 0.0 (+105)

Uruguay vs Brazil
Copa America, Saturday, 9pm ET

Play: Uruguay PK
Odds at Time of Release: +105
Line Parameter: Playable to -115, reduce 4% to -130

The books keep underestimating Uruguay and overestimating Brazil, fine by me, I'm fading Brazil once again. First of all, Uruguay have played better soccer so far, winning all 3 matches and conceding just 1 goal (albeit against teams like Panama, Bolivia and USA), looking as serious as ever under coach Bielsa. 

Brazil are still unbeaten, but with just 1 win in 3 matches, against lowly Paraguay, while fizzling in a goal-less draw against Costa Rica and playing for a 1-1 draw against Colombia in Game 3, where they created just 0.22 xG (to Colombia's 1.31), and they also lost Vinicius Jr to a suspension, as he stupidly elbowed Colombia's James Rodrigues in the 7th minute, right in FRONT of the referee and got his second yellow card of the tournament, leaving a huge gap in Brazil's offense. That reaction is in line with Brazil's overall sub-par performances in the Copa America so far, and it's safe to say that Brazil are cruising for a bruising at the moment. And Uruguay CAN bruise them. 

Uruguay easily outclassed the USMNT in Game 3, scoring the single goal of the match to win by 1-0, which means that they have now won all 3 matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding just 1, while generating a ton of xG and allowing very few. Since coach Bielsa took over in June of 2023, Uruguay have lost just 2 of 15 matches in all competitions, friendlies included (W10 D3 L2), and are W7 D1 L1 in competitive matches. That sole loss came against Ecuador by 2-1 on the road, in the elevation of Quito (9,000ft+), which is always hard. But they beat Brazil by 2-0 at home and even beat Argentina by 2-0 in Argentina, so this team has it all. While on the other hand, Brazil are lacking a proper personality to band that team together. It seems that Brazilians are more interested in blonde perms, bottle services and supercars these days. 

The odds are really weird, the books are caught slacking once again, giving us Uruguay PK at plus money (+105), which, oddly enough, is an almost identical line to the one vs USMNT. Books are slacking, we are not. And as a last note, and take these words with a grain of salt, we saw some sort of preferential treatment towards Uruguay by the referees, and kind of the opposite towards Brazil. Even Vini Jr was unhappy about it and I quote: "The Copa America is always difficult because of the pitches, because of the referees - who always go against us - and because of the way CONMEBOL treats people". How can you expect a fair treatment by the referees when you talk back like that? He might be soccer's equivalent to Boogie Cousins, who got on the wrong side of the referees and they all whistled against him till he left the NBA for good.

And I do have the data to (sort of) support that, as Uruguay have made 36 fouls in the competition and got just 1 card (insane foul/card ratio of 36/1), while Brazil have 39 fouls and 6 cards (6.5 fouls/card).

All things considered, Uruguay have been playing better than Brazil, they are more hungry for success as a group, and as individuals, they have a really good coach and better tactics, and they are (almost) at full health, while Brazil are missing their best offensive weapon and are not exactly passing the eye test. I doubt Brazil will be able to mask all their problems on such a short turnaround, and even if they do take the lead, Uruguay have what it takes to come back in this game. 

Take 5u on Uruguay PK (+105)

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