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Rob Veno

Rob Veno

(603) Connecticut Sun at (604) Minnesota Lynx

Event:
(603) Connecticut Sun at (604) Minnesota Lynx
Sport/League:
WNBA
Date/Time:
July 4, 2024 8PM EDT
Play Rating:
1.5%
Odds:
-110
Play:
1.5% – Minnesota Lynx -2.0 (-110)
Result:
Loss
Analysis

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(603) Connecticut Sun at (604) Minnesota Lynx  (Game Analysis Below)

Play Rating: 1.5%

Play Type: Full Game Side

Play: Minnesota Lynx -2.0 (-110)

Date/Time: Jul 4, 2024 8:00 PM / Line Provider: Consensus Line

 

1.5%: Connecticut @ Minnesota 

Earlier Meeting; May 23rd @ Connecticut

Connecticut -6.5 won in OT 83-82 but did not cover

Sun F DeWanna Bonner made 2 FT’s with 7.0 seconds left & Minnesota’s Kayla McBride missed a jump shot as the buzzer

On The Floor Matchups Similar In Overall Numbers But Different In Styles 

Each defense is elite…Minnesota owns #1 WNBA defensive rating & Connecticut is #2  

Teams offensive ratings are separated by 1/10th of a point – Sun has #3 OR & Lynx are #4

These Are The 2 Slowest Pace Teams In The League (Minnesota 11th & Sun 12th)

Biggest difference is 3 pt shooting % where Minnesota is the league’s best and Connecticut is second worst 

Lynx are also #1 in % of points scored off of turnovers

First game stats highlight the style difference…Sun frontcourt outscored Minnesota’s 57-43 in that game (+14)

Lynx backcourt outscored Connecticut’s 32-15 (+17) 

Most Significant Difference Between These Teams Comes Vs. Top Tier Competition

Minnesota has been tremendous against the Top 4 teams in the league while Connecticut has been poor

Lynx have played far tougher schedule facing the league’s best (New York, Connecticut, Seattle, Las Vegas) 8 times

Connecticut has only had 4 contests vs the league’s elite

Lynx are 6-3 straight up & 7-2 against the spread vs. the WNBA upper echelon 

Sun are 1-3 straight up & 0-4 ats vs. the top opposition

Minnesota is 3-1 su & ats at home against these teams and they’ve won by margin (+23 vs NY / +19 & +9 Seattle)

Connecticut is 0-2 on the road with 11 point losses to both Las Vegas & Seattle

Lynx 9 home games this season = 8-1 su with 7 of those wins coming by 9 or more so they’ve been consistently winning at home by margin

Sun are currently on an 0-5 ats streak L5G    

Final Look

This is a huge game in the standings with 15-4 Connecticut one game ahead of 3rd place Minnesota at 14-5 

Lynx can climb into 2nd place tie and even the season series with a victory here

Minnesota has a sizeable advantage in track record in games where these teams have had to step up in class

Expect Lynx to be ready and in “bounce back” mode after squandering 4Q lead at New York on Tuesday

Price figures to rise so stepping in to play now

Play: Minnesota Lynx -2.0 (-110)

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