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Rob Veno

Rob Veno

(601) Phoenix Mercury at (602) Dallas Wings

Event:
(601) Phoenix Mercury at (602) Dallas Wings
Sport/League:
WNBA
Date/Time:
July 3, 2024 8PM EDT
Play Rating:
1.5%
Odds:
-110
Play:
1.5% – (601) Phoenix Mercury at (602) Dallas Wings Dallas Wings Total Over 83.5 (-110)
Result:
Win
Analysis

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(601) Phoenix Mercury at (602) Dallas Wings  (Game Analysis Below)

Play Rating: 1.5%

Play Type: Full Game Team Total 

Play: Dallas Wings Total Over 83.5 (-110)

Date/Time: Jul 3, 2024 8:00 PM / Line Provider: Draft Kings

 

1.5%: Phoenix @ Dallas

Phoenix possibly without starting C Britney Griner (personal) & starting F Rebecca Allen is ?able (back) 

Potential absences of Griner 6’8” & Allen 6’2” leave Phoenix shorthanded inside 

Reserves 6’3” Natasha Mack (17.3 mins & 5.2 rebounds per game) becomes their only real size   

Creates a huge matchup disadvantage for the Mercury BECAUSE… 

Dallas #1 Offensive Rebounding Team In WNBA & They’re #3 Overall

Dallas #1 Offensive Rebounding team in WNBA vs. Phoenix is #7 in Defensive Rebounding w/Griner & Allen’s stats 

Wings are the WNBA’s #1 scoring team in 2nd Chance Points AND #3 In Points In The Paint

Dallas prefers to attack the rim and they’re tied with Connecticut at #2 in the league in 2 pt FGA’s (73.9%)

62.1% of their points come from 2 pt range which ranks 2nd highest among WNBA teams    

Each Of Thes Teams Plays “Up Tempo”

Each are in the league’s top half In pace - Phoenix is #3 & Dallas #6 

Plenty Of Scoring Opportunities should be available in this game

Season Results Thus Far Between These Teams

3½ weeks ago here in Dallas with Phoenix fully healthy including Griner at C and Rebecca Allen…

Game ended 78-78 in regulation and went Double Overtime finishing 97-90 Phoenix 

May 25th meeting at Phoenix with Griner out = Dallas 107-92 

Final Look

Phoenix rim protection without Griner is minimal which fits the Wings offensive strength

Dallas scored 78 in regulation here at home vs. the Mercury with Griner in the lineup

To cash tonight they have to get to 83 which is only 5 points higher PLUS… 

They did not have star F and 2nd leading scorer Natasha Howard for either of their games vs Phoenix

They’ve also added G Odyssey Sims since then to compensate for the loss of Maddy Siegrist 

Sims is averaging 12.3 ppg (#4 on team) which is only 2.3 less than Siegrist

Dallas has gone “over” this team total in 2 of their L3 home games vs. defensive elites Minnesota & Seattle

Expect them to capitalize on this matchup and score 85+

Play : Dallas Wings Total Over 83.5 (-110)

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