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(961) Arizona Diamondbacks at (962) Los Angeles Dodgers

Event:
(961) Arizona Diamondbacks at (962) Los Angeles Dodgers
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 3, 2024 10PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-108
Play:
3% – (961) Arizona Diamondbacks at (962) Los Angeles Dodgers Total Over 9.0 (-108) Action
Result:
Win
Analysis

3% Take the LA Dodgers - Arizona Diamondbacks OVER (#961-962) (action)

When the bottom of the Dodgers lineup is hitting (like they are right now), LA is a dead nuts OVER team. The Dodgers have pounded out 24 runs in their last three ballgames, cashing Over bets (with plenty of room to spare) each time. This is an ‘action’ wager, but it’s surely worth noting that D-backs projected starter Christian Mena had a 4.90 ERA and 1.48 WHIP at AAA prior to his callup, not an ace in the making.  Arizona’s bullpen behind him took the loss AGAIN last night, a Bottom Five in ERA bullpen for the season.

Arizona is hitting now too - three runs or more in seven straight games, averaging just shy of five runs per game during that span.  They’ve scored four runs or more in all four previous games at Dodgers Stadium this season (3-1 to the Over in those games); producing four runs or more in six of the seven previous meetings between these teams this year.  And I have no hesitation fading Gavin Stone today, off his career high pitch count in a complete game shutout against the light hitting White Sox in his last outing. Current D-backs have hit .321 against Stone, and his lone previous start against Arizona this season wasn’t pretty, cashing Over bets by the top of the seventh inning.  Expect more of the same tonight.  Take the OVER.

Line Parameter: 3% at 9 or lower (up to -120), 2.5% at 9 (-121) or higher

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