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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(971) Los Angeles Angels at (972) Oakland Athletics

Event:
(971) Los Angeles Angels at (972) Oakland Athletics
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 3, 2024 9PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-107
Play:
4% – Los Angeles Angels -107 D Daniel (RHP), J Estes (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

Angels (9:40PM ET BSW, NBCSCA, MLB.TV) – We started last week with a dip and managed to win every single bet from Wednesday-Sunday so I’m hoping we can run it back this week and I’ll head out west in hopes of getting back in the win column when the Los Angeles Angels take on the Oakland A’s in the second game of a three game set at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland, California.

I know the Angels have been left for dead at this point, but I’m not fully convinced this team is out of it.  Seattle has a three game lead in this division but the Mariners can’t hit which means they probably aren’t pulling away and it’s likely the Angels or Rangers end up making this a three team race.  The reason the Angels could potentially do that is some pitching reinforcements, multiple of which could factor into this game tonight.  I’ve watched a bunch of Davis Daniel and Joey Estes (tonight’s respective starters) at the AAA level and have had Daniel rated higher long before his epic outing against Detroit last week.  Davis isn’t a prospect, he’s 27 and has spent the majority of his career in the minors but I think he’s found something as a starter that he can continue to build on against a weak A’s lineup.  Daniel’s AAA numbers won’t jump off the page but he’s found consistency of late firing quality starts in four of his last five (AAA included) with the most recent one being an 8 inning shutout gem against the Tigers with 8 strikeouts and no walks.  The other reinforcements reside in the Angels bullpen, where Hans Crouse has been perfect in 6 innings since being called up and flamethrower Ben Joyce has found the zone and been virtually unhittable.  Joyce hasn’t thrown since June 29th which means this could be a multi-inning outing for him and I think that sets up nicely for the Halos if they can get the ball to Joyce and Co. with the lead. 

Oakland was already in a less than ideal spot with Joey Estes on the mound but they really made a mess of a 7-2 lead last night that puts them in a worse spot at the back end here as well.  Oakland used Lucas Erceg in the 8th which made sense but needed to get Mason Miller some work which put him in a non-save situation in the 9th. Miller walked a batter and gave up two hits which allowed the Angels to score two runs and suddenly the flame thrower was at 24 pitches in the 7-5 A’s win.  That’s less than ideal for Oakland for two reasons, the first being the fact they used their two best relievers last night and the second the Angels will be far less intimidated by Miller.  Oakland saw Miller once last week too so if it does come down to the Angels needed to scratch one across late I give them a better chance than most to get one of Erceg/Miller having just seen them last night.

I don’t think it’s going to come to that because I’m not all that high on Estes or the A’s being able to win back to back games.  Oakland has won back to back games exactly one time in the past two months and was just swept in Anaheim by the Angels last week.  While Daniel will be a new look for A’s hitters, the Angels bats will have a nice advantage having just seen Estes in that series a week ago. I also like that Estes had a respectable start, he gave up just two runs on three hits with 8 strikeouts in 5.2 innings in a game the Angels still ended up winning 5-2.  The Angels should be able to make the adjustment having just seen him and I give the Halos a greater chance of success than I do the A’s who have really only had exposure to Daniel at the AAA level. 

Neither of these offenses are great but I still have Estes as a AAAA caliber arm so I do think the Halos can figure out how to score a few having just seen him last week.  If the Angels can get the lead I think Joyce plays a big part and the Halos bullpen hammers down a win here.  Play on Angels -107 for 4% (or 4 units) 

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