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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(951) St. Louis Cardinals at (952) Pittsburgh Pirates

Event:
(951) St. Louis Cardinals at (952) Pittsburgh Pirates
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 3, 2024 6PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-113
Play:
3% – (951) St. Louis Cardinals at (952) Pittsburgh Pirates Total Over 8.0 (-113) M Mikolas (RHP), J Jones (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

3% Over Cardinals/Pirates (6:40 ET): Other than Miami (who STINKS!), these have been the two lowest scoring teams in the National League so far. But unlike the Marlins, FanGraphs has a somewhat “rosy” projection for both the Cardinals and Pirates’ lineups, moving forward. Specifically St. Louis, who is expected to average about a ½ run per game more the rest of the way. That’s a significantly bigger increase than any of the other so-called “playoff contenders” in the muddled Senior Circuit. Sure enough, we saw signs of that projection coming to fruition last night as the Cards took the series opener here at PNC Park, 7-4, thanks to a Nolan Gorman grand slam. 

Another reason I am liking the Over tonight is the presence of Miles Mikolas on the mound for the Redbirds. Mikolas is strangely 9-0 to the Under in road starts. That seems totally random, given we’re talking about a pitcher with a 5.32 ERA for the season. Now Mikolas has pitched a bit better on the road than he has at Busch Stadium (where he got shelled for TEN runs his last time out). Nevertheless, he has a 4.59 road ERA and the Pirates should be quite familiar with his stuff at this point, having previously faced him 22 times. I am expecting them to put up AT LEAST the same number of runs they did yesterday (4). 

Rookie Jared Jones is starting here for the Pirates. I cashed him (F5) in his last start, which was against Tampa Bay back on June 22nd. Jones had his last turn in the rotation skipped as the organization is managing his workload. Thus, I wouldn’t expect him to go too deep into this game, which brings the Bucs’ bullpen into the equation and they have the fourth worst ERA of any ‘pen in all of baseball. Also, there’s the fact Jones has yet to win B2B starts. The Cardinals' lineup banged out 13 hits yesterday. Bottom line: there are lots of reasons to expect these teams to get Over the total tonight. 3% Over Cardinals/Pirates (Play to 8.5)

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