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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(907) Philadelphia Phillies at (908) Chicago Cubs

Event:
(907) Philadelphia Phillies at (908) Chicago Cubs
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 2, 2024 8PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-121
Play:
4% – Chicago Cubs -121 M Mercado- R (RHP), H Wesneski (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

Cubs (8:05PM ET TBS) – Dallas Wings fall short which gives us a loss to start the new week but our big MLB run is still in tact and I’ll look to make it 7 MLB winners in a row when the Chicago Cubs kick off a three game set with the Philadelphia Phillies at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois.

I’m over this Cubs team contending for anything, I’ve accepted the fact I’m probably wrong on that front but I do think I’ve had a good beat on when to play the Cubs over the past few weeks and this feels like a good spot to play against the Phillies.  I’ve also nailed just about every single one of these AAA call ups and I’m willing to play against Michael Mercado in the starter role as I find him to be more effective as a reliever or once through the order as opposed to making a start at the big league level and giving the Phillies any sort of length here.  I also like Hayden Wesneski, when I “recommitted” to the Cubs a couple weeks ago it was on the pretense they shake up the entire roster (which includes the starting rotation) and Wesneski was one of the guys I hoped would get the ball every fifth day.  Wesneski has been asked to do it all this season (starter, relief pitcher, AAA, MLB) and has excelled across the board posting a 2.53 ERA for Iowa and a 3.60 ERA and 1.16 WHIP for the big league club.  Wesneski was moved back into the starter role last week against the Giants and was respectable in a no decision going 4 innings and striking out 7.  I expect Wesneski to shoot for the 85-90 pitch window tonight (72 last time out) and I think he puts some of the other new Cubs bullpen arms in position to win this game. 

Philadelphia enters play at 55-29, they also enter this series without Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto and kick off a road trip that takes them to the Windy City followed by a series with rival Atlanta.  If there were ever a spot where the Phillies regress a little bit it’s now, their 55 wins are the most entering July in franchise history but there’s no question the Phils went through the motions over the weekend splitting with the lowly Marlins and I won’t be surprised if that carries over here.  It’s this spot where I think the Spencer Turnbull injury hurts, originally this likely would have been Turnbell followed by Mercado which I would not have played against but I don’t think Mercado is going more than 4 innings here which leaves a large gap from Mercado to the high leverage arms.  Mercado had Tommy John back in 2019 which kept him off the mound for nearly three seasons so the Phillies organization has been cautious with his innings at Lehigh Valley this season and I don’t think that changes here.  I also think the Phillies go into “load management” mode for the next week and a half leading up to the All-Star Break with such a massive lead in the division right now.  The Phillies could get to the playoffs with their eyes closed at this point so I don’t think you see Rob Thompson burning through all his top arms just to win one of these games.  I think the Phillies test their roster depth over the next week and a half, that’s probably still good enough for this team to go .500 but they won’t win them all and I don’t think they win here.

Finally this week is just “do or die” for the Cubs.  It’s been a bad season to this point but the National League is bad enough where one strong week gets you back in the Wild Card race and the Cubs have the Phillies and Angels at Wrigley all week.  The Cubs are 22-18 at home this season and I think they add to their solid home tally with a win they desperately need here.  Play on Cubs -121 for 4% (or 4 units)

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