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Dwayne Bryant

Dwayne Bryant

(915) Houston Astros at (916) Toronto Blue Jays

Event:
(915) Houston Astros at (916) Toronto Blue Jays
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 2, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-115
Play:
4% – (915) Houston Astros at (916) Toronto Blue Jays Total Under 8.5 (-115) S Arrighetti (RHP), J Berrios (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

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7:07 PM ET -- MLB 

915 Houston Astros  
916 Toronto Blue Jays

Play: UNDER 8.5 -115  

List Pitchers: Arrighetti & Berrios          

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters:
4% play at 8.5 or better
3% play at 8
2% play at 7.5

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE(S):

In the 2023-24 seasons, the UNDER is 10-1 when Jose Berrios starts at home with the line between even money and -150.

The UNDER is 36-15-3 (72%) this season when Houston had fewer than 10 strikeouts in their last game and their opponent scored 8 or fewer runs in their previous game.

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