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(903) New York Mets at (904) Washington Nationals

(903) New York Mets at (904) Washington Nationals
July 2, 2024 6PM EDT
Play Rating:
4% – (903) New York Mets at (904) Washington Nationals Total Over 9.0 (-113) Action

4% Take Washington - New York OVER (#903-904) (action)

Let me start with an excerpt from my Mets - Nationals Over write-up from yesterday.  Numbers have been edited to reflect the results of last night’s game:

“MLB games are not independent of one another, particularly when it comes to totals. Overs beget more Overs -- hot lineups and worn down bullpens don’t disappear into thin air.  Similarly, Unders beget more Unders -- cold lineups and fresh bullpens can stay that way for weeks on end. So when teams start to streak with their totals, I pay close attention, especially at this time of the season, as the bats start to heat up with the weather.

“The Mets, like much of MLB, is trending Over RIGHT NOW. New York is 6-0 to the Over in their last six games.  Their lineup is simply sizzling: five runs or more in all six of those recent Overs, and five runs or more in 12 of their last 14 overall.  The Nats are hitting too, scoring five runs or more seven times in their last ten games. And all four previous games between these two teams this year (each played right here in DC) have gone OVER the total, finishing with nine runs or more.”

This is an ‘action’ wager, trusting both teams current form.  That said, both bullpens got used extensively last night’s wild extra inning affair; neither fresh tonight.  Sean Manaea got absolutely hammered in both of his starts against Washington last year: 13 hits and nine runs allowed in just 8.1 innings and he’s coming off a five-walk showing in his last outing.  DJ Herz was hit hard by the Mets in his MLB debut last month and he’s failed to finish the fourth inning in his last two starts, allowing 13 hits and eight runs (including four homers) in the process.  Just like last night, expect fireworks.  Take the OVER.

Line Parameter: 4% at 9 or lower (up to -125), 3% at 9 (-126) or higher or at 9.5

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