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(951) New York Mets at (952) Washington Nationals

Event:
(951) New York Mets at (952) Washington Nationals
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
July 1, 2024 6PM EDT
Play Rating:
5%
Odds:
-108
Play:
5% – (951) New York Mets at (952) Washington Nationals Total Over 8.0 (-108) D Peterson (LHP), M Gore (LHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

5% Big Ticket: Take Washington - New York OVER (#951-952) (listed pitchers)

MLB games are not independent of one another, particularly when it comes to totals.  Overs beget more Overs -- hot lineups and worn down bullpens don’t disappear into thin air.  Similarly, Unders beget more Unders -- cold lineups and fresh bullpens can stay that way for weeks on end. So when teams start to streak with their totals, I pay close attention, especially at this time of the season, as the bats start to heat up with the weather.

The Mets, like much of MLB, is trending Over RIGHT NOW. New York is 5-0 to the Over in their last five games.  Their lineup is simply sizzling: five runs or more in all five of those recent Overs, and five runs or more in eleven of their last 13 overall.  The Mets have been hammering lefties -- they rank #4 in OPS against opposing southpaws like MacKenzie Gore. 

Gore spent most of the season dominating, but his last two starts have been very concerning: 14 hits and nine runs allowed in ten innings of work, walking batters in bunches, notching only one strikeout last time out.  Gore faced the Mets once in June; knocked out of the box in the fifth inning after allowing six runs.  Current Mets have hit .300 against him with a .908 OPS.  Washington’s bullpen behind Gore is no shutdown unit.

The Mets have significant bullpen issues as well after their dicey pen got lit up for the second time in three days yesterday, costing them in extra innings against the Astros.  That’s bad news with starter Dave Peterson on the hill.  Peterson is 5-0 to the Over in his five starts this season.  He, too, is struggling to eat innings, walking five batters in just 4.1 innings of work in his last start.  Current Nats have hit .338 against him with an .875 OPS. 

The Nats have scored five runs or more six times in their last nine games, and they’ve pounded the baseball in their first game back from each of their last four previous road trips dating back to the first week of May, scoring 9, 12, 7 and 8 runs in those games: 4-0 to the Over.  And all three previous games between these two teams this year (played right here on this field) have gone OVER the total, finishing with nine runs or more.  Expect more of the same tonight; worthy of a ‘step-up’ sized wager.  Big Ticket: Take the OVER.

Line Parameter: 5% at 8 or lower, 4% at 8.5 or higher

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