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Teddy Covers

(913) New York Yankees at (914) Toronto Blue Jays

Event:
(913) New York Yankees at (914) Toronto Blue Jays
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
June 30, 2024 1PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-113
Play:
3% – (913) New York Yankees at (914) Toronto Blue Jays Total Over 8.0 (-113) Action
Result:
Win
Analysis

3% 3% Take New York - Toronto OVER (#913-914). (action)

My clients and I have cashed a pair of winners betting on Overs in this series already.  Let me start with an excerpt from my last ‘Slugfest’ writeup.  Numbers have been slightly edited to reflect the results of the last two games:

“MLB games are not independent of one another, particularly when it comes to totals. Overs beget more Overs -- hot lineups and worn down bullpens don’t disappear into thin air.  Similarly, Unders beget more Unders -- cold lineups and fresh bullpens can stay that way for weeks on end. So when teams start to streak with their totals, I pay close attention, especially at this time of the season, as the bats start to heat up with the weather.”.

Seven of the last eight meetings between these two teams this year have gone Over the total.  The Yankees are now 11-2 to the Over in their last 13 games including 12, 21, 11, 14 and 16 run outbursts over their last five. The Blue Jays are 6-0 to the Over in their last six and 97-2-1 to the Over in their last dozen.   Right now, these are two potent lineups worth supporting and two suspect pitching staffs worth fading, especially when we’re talking about these two struggling bullpens of late.”

This is an ‘action’ wager -- worthy of a bet even if we get a late pitching scratch.  That said, Kevin Gausman has a 6.43 ERA in Toronto compared to 2.22 away from home.  In four June starts NOT against the light hitting A’s, Gausman has allowed 18 runs in 23 innings of work; not dominating.  Eight of his last ten starts have produced nine runs or more.  Meanwhile, Gerritt Cole gave up four home runs last time out, and neither of his first two starts since coming off the IL has been particularly effective, both cashing Overs with room to spare.  Expect crooked numbers on the scoreboard once again this afternoon.  Take the OVER.

Line Parameter: 3% at 8 or lower, 2.5% at 8.5 or higher

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