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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(225573) Turkey at (225574) Austria

Event:
(225573) Turkey at (225574) Austria
Sport/League:
UEFA
Date/Time:
July 2, 2024 3PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-105
Play:
4% – (225573) Turkey at (225574) Austria REGULATION Total Over 2.5 (-105)
Result:
Win
Analysis

4% Over Turkey/Austria (3:00 ET): Austria were surprise Group D winners, thanks to putting up three goal victories against both Poland and the Netherlands. The lone drawback is they did concede at least one goal in every match. Even though the lone goal allowed against France was an OG, anyone that watched that match knows France had plenty of opportunities to score (created 2.07 xG). Austria is now over 5.0 xGA for the tournament (4th most, non-penalty). That makes this Round of 16 matchup a tricky one as Turkey have scored five goals thus far. But Turkey has also conceded at least 1.68 xGA in every match (also in bottom five, plus giving up 4th most crosses into penalty area). So I expect no shortage of scoring in this final Round of 16 fixture. 

We just got Over 2.5 with our play on Turkey/Czechia as the Crescent-Stars scored the game winner four minutes into stoppage time (Czechia were down to 10 men). While all three goals in that match were scored in the second half, it’s not as if the Over wasn’t a just result, given the two sides created just over 3.0 xG. Turkey is also one of a handful of sides during this Euro Cup to have created 3.0 xG itself in one match, that being the opener against Georgia. The one match where they didn’t score at all saw them get blitzed 3-0 by Portugal. So there’s yet to be a match involving Turkey to feature fewer than three total goals. 

The goalkeeper for Turkey (Mert Gunok) hurt his knee against Portugal and while he’s still expected to play Tuesday, that injury could have an effect. Two players are out due to yellow cards, including captain Hakan Calhanoglu, but I don’t think that will keep Turkey from scoring. Considering the vulnerability both of these sides have shown at the back end, I don’t think it will be a problem getting Over 2.5 goals again. When they met in an International Friendly back in March, Austria found the back of the net SIX times by themselves. Don’t look for anything that crazy in a more high-stakes environment, however there’s only one way to play this one. 4% Over Turkey/Austria (2.5)

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