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(913) New York Yankees at (914) Toronto Blue Jays

Event:
(913) New York Yankees at (914) Toronto Blue Jays
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
June 28, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-118
Play:
3% – (913) New York Yankees at (914) Toronto Blue Jays Total Over 8.0 (-118) Action
Result:
Win
Analysis

3% Take New York Yankees - Toronto Blue Jays OVER (#913-914) (action)

Let me start with an excerpt from my Yankees - Blue Jays Over write-up from last night, a bet that cashed by the fourth inning.  Numbers have been slightly adjusted to reflect the outcome of last night’s Slugfest.

“MLB games are not independent of one another, particularly when it comes to totals. Overs beget more Overs -- hot lineups and worn down bullpens don’t disappear into thin air.  Similarly, Unders beget more Unders -- cold lineups and fresh bullpens can stay that way for weeks on end. So when teams start to streak with their totals, I pay close attention, especially at this time of the season, as the bats start to heat up with the weather.

Five of the last six meetings between these two teams this year have gone Over the total.  The Yankees are 9-2 to the Over in their last eleven including 11, 14 and 16 run outbursts over their last three games.  The Blue Jays are 4-0 to the Over in their last four and 7-2-1 to the Over in their last ten.   Right now, these are two potent lineups worth supporting and two suspect pitching staffs worth fading, especially when we’re talking about these two struggling bullpens of late.”

This is an ‘action’ wager -- worthy of a bet even if we get a late pitching scratch.  That said, Yusei Kikuchi is an easy pitcher to fade right now; absolutely hammered in each of his last two outings (15 hits and nine earned runs allowed in just six innings of work), with only one quality start in his last six trips to the hill (5-1 to the Over in those last six starts; all five producing 10 runs or more).  The Yankees Marcus Stroman is 4-0 to the Over in his four June starts with an ERA just shy of 5.00 this month, a far cry from what his season long stats are saying. Just like last night, expect fireworks. Take the OVER.

Line Parameter: 3% at 8.5 or lower, 2% at 9 or higher

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