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(959) New York Yankees at (960) Toronto Blue Jays

Event:
(959) New York Yankees at (960) Toronto Blue Jays
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
June 27, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-108
Play:
3% – (959) New York Yankees at (960) Toronto Blue Jays Total Over 8.5 (-108) Action
Result:
Win
Analysis

3% Take New York Yankees - Toronto Blue Jays OVER (#959-960) (action)

MLB games are not independent of one another, particularly when it comes to totals.  Overs beget more Overs -- hot lineups and worn down bullpens don’t disappear into thin air.  Similarly, Unders beget more Unders -- cold lineups and fresh bullpens can stay that way for weeks on end. So when teams start to streak with their totals, I pay close attention, especially at this time of the season, as the bats start to heat up with the weather.

Four of the last five meetings between these two teams this year have gone Over the total.  The Yankees are 8-2 to the Over in their last ten including 14 and 16 run outbursts over their last two games.  The Blue Jays are 3-0 to the Over in their last three and 6-2-1 to the Over in their last nine.   Right now, these are two potent lineups worth supporting and two suspect pitching staffs worth fading, especially when we’re talking about these two struggling bullpens of late.

This is an ‘action’ wager -- worthy of a bet even if we get a late pitching scratch.  That said, Carlos Rodon has been bombed in each of his last two starts: 17 hits and 13 runs allowed in just 8.2 innings of work. He needed 101 pitches to get through four innings in his only start against the Blue Jays this season.  Current Yankees have had success against Jose Berrios, with a .310 batting average against and a .904 OPS.  Berrios, too, is trending the wrong way, hit hard in each of his last two outings, with all kinds of advanced metric indicators that he’s not primed for an immediate rebound.  Expect fireworks!  Take the OVER.

Line Parameter: 3% at 8.5 or lower, 2% at 9 or higher

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