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Dwayne Bryant

Dwayne Bryant

(953) Miami Marlins at (954) Philadelphia Phillies

Event:
(953) Miami Marlins at (954) Philadelphia Phillies
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
June 27, 2024 6PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-142
Play:
3% – Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-142) T Rogers (LHP), Z Wheeler (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

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6:20 PM ET -- MLB 

953 Miami Marlins  
954 Philadelphia Phillies

Play: 954 PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -142

List Pitchers: Rogers & Wheeler                  

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters: 
3% play at -150 or better 
2% play at -151 to -155

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.  

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE(S):

Miami is 1-11 on the run line in the 2023-24 seasons when Trevor Rogers starts and they're facing an NL opponent with the total set between 7 and 8.5.  Average Score: Opponents 5.6, Miami 2.1

Miami is 0-7 on the run line in the 2023-24 seasons when Trevor Rogers starts against a division rival. Average Score: Opponents 6, Miami 1.1

Miami is 0-7 on the run line in the 2023-24 seasons when Trevor Rogers starts against teams that are outscoring their opponents by an average of at least .5 runs per game on the season. Average Score: Opponents 6.9, Miami 2.7

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