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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(965) Minnesota Twins at (966) Arizona Diamondbacks

Event:
(965) Minnesota Twins at (966) Arizona Diamondbacks
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
June 27, 2024 3PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-102
Play:
4% – Minnesota Twins -102 D Festa (RHP), J Montgomery (LHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

Twins (3:40PM ET BSN, MLB Network) – Mariners get it done to get us out with a Wednesday split and it’s on to Thursday for the first of two simultaneous early selections when the Minnesota Twins and the Arizona Diamondbacks contest the rubber match of a three game set at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

I’ve had this spot circled for a while for Minnesota as we get to see the MLB debut for 24 year old RHP David Festa, who gets the call after Chris Paddack hit the IL earlier this week.  The reason I’ve been waiting for Festa is I track MILB power rankings (which I will reference on Twitter when I post my AAA bets) and Festa is one of the last of the upper echelon AAA starting pitching prospects to get the call to make his MLB debut.  In most other organizations we probably would have seen Festa already, he’s been dealing at AAA with a 3.77 ERA and 13.1 K/9 in 14 starts at St Paul so far this season. Minnesota has the luxury of having consistent starting pitching, most of which has been healthy until recently, so Festa has been able to settle in at AAA and have success which I expect to translate here.  Festa has a mid-90’s fastball, a decent off speed pitch but most importantly it’s his command of the zone that makes him a pitcher that should have success at the MLB level.  He’s got “swing and miss” stuff similar to Spencer Arrighetti but he’s far less likely to walk a bunch of guys which I think gives him serious upside until the oddsmakers and betting market figures that out.  Festa also had to deal with the atrocious weather that comes with pitching in the IL in April and May (rainouts, shortened starts, etc.) but he’s used to that (from New Jersey) and has found his groove to the tune of 16 strikeouts in 11.2 innings over his past two starts.  Arizona plays their AAA ball in the PCL which means no one on this Diamondbacks roster has seen Festa and I expect that to give the youngster a nice advantage first time through the order this afternoon. 

Arizona counters with Jordan Montgomery, he’s on a nice three start win streak and seems to fix whatever mechanical issue he cited for his early season struggles but he’s still far tougher on left handed hitters which isn’t as useful against a RHH dominant Twins lineup.  Most of Minnesota’s big bats hit from the right side so it comes as no surprise the Twins hammered Montgomery when they saw him as a member of the Texas Rangers last year.  Minnesota is also starting to heat up, the Twins are 11-5 in their past 16 games and lead MLB with a .317 average in that span.  One of those big right-handed bats is Carlos Correa, after a slow start he’s locked in and the return of Royce Lewis (who already has 10 HR’s in just 74 at bats) has really given Minnesota’s lineup an extra gear.  Willi Castro (switch), Carlos Santana (switch), Byron Buxton and Jose Miranda also all hit from the right side so I see this Twins lineup being a real challenge for Montgomery once again here. 

I still really like this Arizona team but they were red hot to start June and it’s possible they are starting to cool off losing three of four with a total of 9 runs scored in those four games.  I won’t be at all surprised if the Diamondbacks bounce back this weekend when they host the A’s but here they run into a team that’s simply playing better ball than they are right now.  Throw in the fact you have a Diamondbacks lineup that’s never seen Festa, all of the high leverage guys available for the Twins and a Twins team that’s crushed Montgomery recently and I think you have to take a shot at this cheap price with the Twins here. Play on Twins -102 for 4% (or 4 units)

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