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(915) Toronto Blue Jays at (916) Boston Red Sox

Event:
(915) Toronto Blue Jays at (916) Boston Red Sox
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
June 26, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-118
Play:
3% – (915) Toronto Blue Jays at (916) Boston Red Sox Total Over 9.5 (-118) Action
Result:
No Play
Analysis

3% Take Boston - Toronto OVER (915-916) (action)

Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up supporting the Over in last night’s game between these two teams.  Numbers have been slightly adjusted to reflect the outcome of that ballgame:

“The Red Sox bats are heating up with the weather in June, pounding out seven runs or more eight times in their last 13 games; 9-3-1 to the Over during that span.  The Blue Jays bats pounded out nine runs by the fourth inning last night and they’ve scored 20 runs over their last three games; 6-2-1 to the Over in their last nine. There’s ample reason to expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard once again tonight in a matchup featuring a pair of suspect starting pitchers, a Blue Jays bullpen that has spent most of the season getting lit up (bottom six in bullpen ERA) and a Boston bullpen that used every key arm in high leverage spots to close out tight wins on Saturday, Sunday and Monday.”

This is an ‘action’ wager based on lineup and bullpen current form, but it’s worth noting the two starting pitchers again today. The Red Sox aren’t 1-8 in Kutter Crawford’s last nine starts by accident.  Crawford has allowed 3, 4, 6, 6 and 4 runs in his last five starts at Fenway, and he’s allowed eight home runs in four June starts, struggling with the gopher ball. Toronto’s Yariel Rodriguez came off the DL and allowed five runs in 1.1 innings of work in his first start back. He’s yet to record an out in the fifth inning in any of his first five big league outings.  And both bullpens here are problematic.  On a warm summer night in Boston with the wind blowing out, expect fireworks, just like last night.  Take the OVER.

Line Parameter: 3% at 10 or lower, 2% at 10.5 or higher

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