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Dwayne Bryant

Dwayne Bryant

(925) New York Yankees at (926) New York Mets

Event:
(925) New York Yankees at (926) New York Mets
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
June 26, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-115
Play:
4% – (925) New York Yankees at (926) New York Mets Total Under 8.5 (-115) L Gil (RHP), S Manaea (LHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

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======================================

7:10 PM ET -- MLB 

925 New York Yankees  
926 New York Mets  

Play: UNDER 8.5 -115

List Pitchers: Gil & Manaea                  

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters: 
4% play at 8 or better 
3% play at 7.5
2% play at 7

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.  

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE(S):

Play UNDER on NL home teams that are allowing an average of at least 4.5 runs per game if they're facing a starter who allowed at least 7 runs in his last start. 47-15-4 (76%) since 2020.

The UNDER is 14-4 (78%) in the 2023-24 seasons when the Yankees are coming off a game in which they allowed at least 9 runs.

The UNDER is 13-5 (72%) this season when the Mets are at home against a starter that is averaging at least 5 strikeouts per start in 2024.

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