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(963) Toronto Blue Jays at (964) Boston Red Sox

Event:
(963) Toronto Blue Jays at (964) Boston Red Sox
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
June 25, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-120
Play:
3% – (963) Toronto Blue Jays at (964) Boston Red Sox Total Over 9.0 (-120) Action
Result:
Win
Analysis

3% Take Boston - Toronto OVER (963-964) (action)

My clients and I cashed a 5% Big Ticket on the Over when these same two starters met at the Rogers Centre last week.  I have no hesitation coming right back with another Over in the rematch tonight.

The Red Sox bats are heating up with the weather in June, pounding out seven runs or more eight times in their last dozen games; 8-3-1 to the Over during that span.  The Blue Jays bats aren’t quite as hot, but it’s not like Toronto can’t hit -- they’ve scored 11 runs over their last two games while going 5-2-1 to the Over in their last eight games.  There’s ample reason to expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard once again tonight in a matchup featuring a pair of suspect starting pitchers, a Blue Jays bullpen that has spent most of the season getting lit up (bottom six in bullpen ERA) and a Boston bullpen that used every key arm in high leverage spots to close out tight wins in their last three ballgames.

This is an ‘action’ wager based on lineup and bullpen current form, but it’s worth noting the two starting pitchers here.  Toronto’s Kevin Gausman has allowed 14 runs in just 17.1 innings in three June starts not against the hapless A’s.  The Red Sox have hit him hard, with a .307 batting average and an .864 OPS in a significant ‘division rival’ sample size.  Gausman’s two starts against Boston last year? 8.1 innings of work, 15 hits and 10 earned runs allowed, and his start against them last week wasn’t pretty either.   Each of his last EIGHT starts against the Red Sox have produced nine combined runs or more.

Bryan Bello’s numbers are even worse than Gausman’s; lit up in three of his four previous June starts -- 30 hits, 11 walks and 16 runs allowed in just 21.2 innings of work.  Current Blue Jays have hammered him to the tune of a .359 batting average against and a .930 OPS.  Expect fireworks on a warm summer night at Fenway tonight, start to finish.  Take the OVER.

Line Parameter: 3% at 9 (up to -125) or lower, 2.5% at 9.5 or higher

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