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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(955) New York Mets at (956) Chicago Cubs

(955) New York Mets at (956) Chicago Cubs
June 23, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
4% – Chicago Cubs -109 L Severino (RHP), J Assad (RHP) Must Start

Cubs (7:10PM ET ESPN) – Nationals get it done on Friday for a best bet winner, the Mariners roll yesterday for a free play win posted to Twitter and I’ll look to finish off a weekend sweep in MLB on Sunday Night Baseball with the rubber match of a three game set between the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois.

If you watched my segment on Last Call yesterday I talked about the Cubs (yet again) and how I thought the line move toward the Mets in that game was ridiculous and the Cubs proved me correct with an 8-1 win.  A nice bounce back from an inexplicable 11-1 loss on Friday and I’m going to take a stand with my thought process that the Cubs would start to string together series wins (something I discussed earlier this week on WagerTalk Today and First Pitch).  The Cubs battled back from blowing 9th inning loss on Monday to take two of three from the Giants and I think the Cubs do the same here.  The market still has the Mets priced as the better of these two teams (despite similar records) but I still see the Cubs as the bigger underachievers to this point coupled with greater upside which makes them a great bet while we can still get them around evens at home (something that should just not be the case IMO).  The Mets haven’t lost back to back games all month, they lead MLB with 6.25 runs per game so far in June but the bats went quiet against Jameson Taillon yesterday (concerning that Taillon was able to go 7 innings and strikeout 10) and I could see some carry over here.  Javier Assad has better stuff than Taillon, he also has a better pitch mix and his most recent start (5 innings of 1 run ball with 7 strikeouts) against the Giants leads me to believe it’s possible for Assad to get back to the excellent form he showed in April.  That’s when the Mets last saw Assad, he went 5 innings and gave up just one run in a 4-2 Cubs loss at Citi Field.  The Cubs have a rested bullpen after back to back blowouts so if Assad gives them 5 strong I expect the home team to be in good shape again here. 

I’ve heard plenty of talk about the Mets and Grimace and how great they are now (remember this is the same team that was so cold they had pitchers throwing their gloves into the stands a couple weeks ago) but I’m hearing nothing about the fact the Cubs have won three of their past four games and scored 19 runs in the three wins.  I bring that up because it’s very possible the it’s the Cubs turn for a resurgence and I want to make sure we are ahead of the curve and profiting as the Cubs (finally) reach the potential I thought they had this season.  The Mets go with Luis Severino, he was great against the Cubs earlier this season but he’s also been streaky throughout his career and just had a great run halted by the Rangers earlier this week.  The Mets are likely down a starter with Starling Marte leaving the game with a sore knee so there’s a number of things putting Severino’s 4 start win streak (yes Severino got the win despite giving up 6 runs to the Rangers) in jeopardy here. The Mets have great individual relievers, it’s why I’ve said they have a plus bullpen all season but it’s the big spots that have killed the Mets relief unit this year.  Because of that I trust the Mets far less on the road and in a big prime time spot, both of which they will be up against on Sunday Night Baseball at Wrigley Field. 

If you have followed me all season it’s no secret I’m high on the Cubs and I’ve been super patient about jumping in with them because there wasn’t the correct game to game value until recently.  It took a bad April and May for the market to bail on the Cubs but they have showed signs of life which I hope culminate in another series win here.  We had a 4% cash with the Cubs against the Giants earlier this week, I’ll probably try to get in with the Cubs once per series if they continue to play well and the spot against the Mets is here.  Play on Cubs -109 for 4% (or 4 units)

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