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Pavlos Laguretos

Pavlos Laguretos

(235617) Bolivia at (235618) USA

Event:
(235617) Bolivia at (235618) USA
Sport/League:
SOC
Date/Time:
June 23, 2024 6PM EDT
Play Rating:
1%
Odds:
-120
Play:
1% – REGULATION Bolivia +2.0 (-120)
Result:
Push
Analysis

USA vs Bolivia
Copa America, Sunday, 6pm ET

Play: Bolivia +2
Odds at Time of Release: -120
Line Parameter: Playable to -130

USA are huge -550 favourites against Bolivia, with the Draw at +550 and Bolivia to win is at +1600. That means that the Asian Spread is set at 2, with USA -2 at -105 and Bolivia +2 at -120. If you've watched more than 2 USA matches in the last year or so, you know that they have a problem against low blocks and against teams that are set up defensively. 

Bolivia have been using a lot of 5-3-2 formations, or 3-5-2 that turns into a 5-3-2 when defending. While it's true that Bolivia are usually the punching bags of these tournaments, and they are usually the first team to face the hosting nation, in fact, Bolivia have faced the host in 5 of L/9 tournaments and have lost 1 and drew 4 (W0 D4 L1). 

As for USA, they have the best generation of players, with a TON of options to choose from, especially up front, but the BIG problem is the coach. This is an unsuitable coach for a team with that much talent, he has no ideas when things go wrong, and his tactics are just terrible. 

Now I know this is the premiere for USA, they are playing at home and they are much better on paper, but BETTING IS ALL ABOUT THE ODDS. Do you, as a bettor, want to take USA -2 and hope that USA win by 3 or more? Fine by me, go for it. I am taking a small 1u bet on Bolivia +2 to see if it sticks. USA will get a LOT of bets from the public, and this is is a train that I personally DO NOT want to get into. 

Take 1u on Bolivia +2 (-120), which gives us 3 ways to win, and 1 way to push. We win if Bolivia wins, if it's a draw, and even if Bolivia lose by 1 goal, while our bet is returned if they lose by exactly 2 goals. This bet loses only if USA win by 3, which is not entirely out of the question, but it's gonna be sweaty as hell. And I don't want to sweat it. 
 

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