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Las Vegas Cris

Las Vegas Cris

(913) Kansas City Royals at (914) Texas Rangers

Event:
(913) Kansas City Royals at (914) Texas Rangers
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
June 22, 2024 4PM EDT
Play Rating:
2%
Odds:
100
Play:
2% – (913) Kansas City Royals at (914) Texas Rangers Total Over 8.5 (+100) M Wacha (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

2% KC/TEX over 8.5 (+100) listed/action

  • Regression coming for Gray:
    • surface ERA: 3.31
    • xERA: 4.59. It is indicative of a lot of luck on his side so far.
  • TEX bullpen is rapidly declining:
    • Leclerc threw 27 pitches for them yesterday, so he is most likely unavailable. 
    • TEX mid-long relievers are well below average
    • L14 TEX pen has a 5.23 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP walking 12.5% of batters
  • Cannot expect a long outing for Wacha; he is off the IL for a foot issue and hasn't pitched in 3 weeks.
    • That leaves the KC pen to cover at least 4 innings (likely 5).
      • KC pen is rapidly declining as well
        • L14: 4.31 SIERA, 1.3 WHIP, and only a 16.6% K%
        • Season: 4.39 SIERA (2nd worst in MLB), 17.8% K% (4th worst in MLB)
  • Model simulations show an average score of 9.71.

    Good to -125
    • consensus
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