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Jeff Michaels

Jeff Michaels

(923) Seattle Mariners at (924) Miami Marlins

Event:
(923) Seattle Mariners at (924) Miami Marlins
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
June 22, 2024 4PM EDT
Play Rating:
5%
Odds:
-160
Play:
5% – 1H Seattle Mariners -160 L Gilbert (RHP), S Anderson (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

(923) Seattle Mariners at (924) Miami Marlins

1H Seattle Mariners -160 L Gilbert (RHP), S Anderson (RHP) Must Start

This is good as a 5% to -180. If laying from -181 to -195 plays as a 4%.

I am fading a Miami team off an amazing 3 straight walk off wins with Anderson on the mound but we will still take their late theatrics by making this a F5 inning play. . Anderson was in the Mexican League until April made four AAA starts for Texas and and pitched 3 innings for the Rangers but was traded to Miami for cash on May 30th and he’s pitched 2 innings here. This is his first ever start. The Marlins has obviously won two straight after a win as a dog but they are still 7-14 in that role this season. Miami is 5-13 at home in day games with one win as a -170 favorite. 

Seattle is 13-5 off a loss as a favorite. Gilbert is off an 8 inning 2 hit shut-out and in his last three starts he has a 1.66 ERA and 0.60 WHIP with a 22-0 (!!) K-W ratio. The Mariners are 23-13 versus teams with a losing record and since May 26th they are 15-4 with the average score in the wins 4.9 to 2.2.

Home Dogs off a walk off win in the the first game of a series as a Home Dog are 54-115 (32% and -27% ROI). Since 2007 only 12 teams have been a dog/favorite to -135 and have been off 2 straight walk-of-wins and they have gone 4-7.

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