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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(973) Seattle Mariners at (974) Miami Marlins

Event:
(973) Seattle Mariners at (974) Miami Marlins
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
June 21, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-115
Play:
3% – 1H Seattle Mariners -0.5 (-115) G Kirby (RHP), T Rogers (LHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

3% Seattle F5 -0.5 (7:10 ET): First off, take note that I’m playing the Mariners both on the run line and only for the first five (innings). Despite B2B losses, including yesterday afternoon here in Cleveland (6-3), the M’s ought to be feeling pretty good about themselves right about now. That’s because they still own the largest division lead in the American League (8 games) and are heading to Miami this weekend to face the moribund Marlins. While it’s a cross-country flight to face a team that had Thursday off, the Mariners look to have a big edge in this series opener, particularly early on. 

That’s because George Kirby will be starting for Seattle on Friday. Not only does Kirby have a 1.50 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in three starts this month, but he’s working on five days’ rest. In that situation, he is 16-4 with a 2.27 ERA since making his big league debut in 2022. It’s a very weak Miami offense that Kirby will be facing here, one that is averaging just 3.6 runs per game this season and has a .284 OBP (2nd lowest in MLB). There have been only two times in the L10 games where the Marlins scored more than four runs. I am a little concerned about the Mariners’ bullpen coming into today (three relievers worked yesterday), but with Kirby having gone a full five innings in 12 consecutive starts, that’s not really a concern with how we are betting tonight’s matchup. Oh, by the way, Kirby has allowed 2 ER in 9 of those 12 starts. 

Starting for the Marlins is Trevor Rogers and the team is a horrendous 1-13 with him on the mound this year including 0-8 here in Miami. He’s been a bit better as of late, but Rogers still has a 5.09 ERA and 1.623 WHIP for the season and those numbers only get worse at home. While the Marlins do come into this series off B2B wins, both were of the walk-off variety and they did NOT have a lead after five innings in either. Prior to those two wins, the team had lost six in a row and 12 of 14 overall to open June. They last won three straight in mid-May. Meanwhile, Seattle hasn’t lost three straight since mid-May. The Mariners look to have the clear edge early on in this game. 3% Seattle F5 -0.5 (Play to -135) 

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