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Nick Borrman

Nick Borrman

Toronto FC at New York Red Bulls

Event:
Toronto FC at New York Red Bulls
Sport/League:
MLS
Date/Time:
June 22, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-130
Play:
3% – New York Red Bulls -0.75 (-130)
Result:
Win
Analysis

MLS

(209913) Toronto FC at (209914) New York Red Bulls

Toronto was the worst team in the league last season and while they have improved with seven wins already this season (they had only four all last season), their defense is not one to be trusted right now.

Somehow, Toronto kept four clean sheets in their first five matches, but since have conceded 30 goals in their last 14 matches.  They have been especially poor as of late, allowing 18 goals over their last eight matches including at least two in six of those games.  Their xGA confirms those numbers as Toronto allowed 1.17 xGA in their first 11 matches but has risen to 1.54 over their last eight.  Directly correlated, they have only one win in those eight games.

The Red Bulls were a statistically unlucky team last year allowing just 0.99 xGA, the 2nd best mark in the league, yet barely made the playoffs and were knocked out in the first round.  This year though, the results have come with nearly identical numbers as they have allowed an ever-so-slightly higher 1.06 xGA per match, but that now ranks 1st in the league.  Their defense is no fluke.

At home, New York is unbeaten in eight matches, allowing a total of only five goals including keeping four clean sheets.  Only once have they allowed more than one goal.

I believe a return to Red Bull Arena will get them off the schneid of their three-game winless run.  Despite scoring only two goals in those three matches, their chances created numbers showed a much higher 5.6 xG tally suggesting they could have scored several more.  Especially considering they had scored 13 goals over their previous five matches.

TAKE NEW YORK RED BULLS -0.75

Line Parameter: 3% to -140, otherwise just play -1.0

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