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Kyle Anthony

Kyle Anthony

(24313) Daniel Rodriguez at (24314) Kelvin Gastelum

Event:
(24313) Daniel Rodriguez at (24314) Kelvin Gastelum
Sport/League:
MMA
Date/Time:
June 22, 2024 3PM EDT
Play Rating:
1%
Odds:
200
Play:
1% – Daniel Rodriguez +200
Result:
Loss
Analysis

Is Kelvin Gastelum really a (-250) in the year of our lord 2024??? Now listen, I know Kelvin's faced top level for years but his most notable win is probably knocking out Michael Bisping back in 2017 when he was 3 weeks removed from getting choked out by GSP. Yes, GSP. Ever since Gastelum's been on a downward spiral. 2-6 in last 8 cage appearances only beating Ian Heinisch who retired ending his career on a 1-4 run and Chris Curtis who arguably beat Kelvin in a close decision. Both Kelvin and Daniel Rodriguez have solid boxing yet I'd give the crisper overall combinations to D-Rod. One of the biggest advantages will be the high volume output Rodriguez pushes nearly doubling significant strikes landed compared to Kelvin. D-Rod lands 7.3 significant strikes per minute while Kelvin lands 3.5 significant strikes per minute. This high volume should allow him to dictate the pace utilizing his 3 inch reach advantage in space. Plus, Rodriguez can freely push forward as I don't believe Kelvin can get him down. Only supporting a 30% takedown success rate, while Rodriguez has a nice 63% takedown defense. Add in the fact Kelvin's also displayed weak takedown ability going 1-16 on takedown attempts over his last 4 fights. Believe D-Rod can defend takedowns working his solid boxing at range and at this solid plus number it's an easy play. 

 

 

1% Client Play: Daniel Rodriguez (+200)

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