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(967) Boston Red Sox at (968) Toronto Blue Jays

Event:
(967) Boston Red Sox at (968) Toronto Blue Jays
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
June 19, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
5%
Odds:
102
Play:
5% – (967) Boston Red Sox at (968) Toronto Blue Jays Total Over 8.0 (+102) B Bello (RHP), K Gausman (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

5% Big Ticket: Take Boston - Toronto OVER (#967-968) (listed pitchers)

The Red Sox bats are heating up with the weather in June, pounding out seven runs or more five times in their last seven games.  The Blue Jays bats aren’t quite as hot, but it’s not like Toronto can’t hit, now 7-4 to the Over in their last 11 at home.  There’s ample reason to expect some crooked numbers on the scoreboard once again tonight in a matchup featuring a pair of suspect starting pitchers, a Blue Jays bullpen that has spent most of the season getting lit up (bottom five in bullpen ERA) and a Boston bullpen that used every key arm in high leverage spots to close out last night’s victory.

Toronto’s Kevin Gausman has some ugly home/road splits, with a 6.44 ERA in seven home starts this season. The Red Sox have hit him hard, with a .333 batting average and an .859 OPS in a significant ‘division rival’ sample size.  Gausman’s two starts against Boston last year? 8.1 innings of work, 15 hits and 10 earned runs allowed.   Each of his last SEVEN starts against the Red Sox have produced nine combined runs or more.

Bryan Bello’s numbers are even worse than Gausman’s; lit up in all three previous June starts -- 23 hits, nine walks and 14 runs allowed in just 15.2 innings of work.  His ERA is a full run higher on the road than at Fenway -- just like last year AND the year before.  Current Blue Jays have hammered him to the tune of a .389 batting average against and a 1.204 OPS.  With a surprisingly low posted total of 8 in this ballgame, the Over is worthy of a step-up sized wager!  Big Ticket: Take the OVER.

Line Parameter: 5% at 8 or lower (up to -125); 4% at 8.5 or higher (or 8 at -126 or higher)

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