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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(907) Arizona Diamondbacks at (908) Washington Nationals

Event:
(907) Arizona Diamondbacks at (908) Washington Nationals
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
June 18, 2024 6PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
105
Play:
3% – Arizona Diamondbacks +105 S Cecconi (RHP), J Irvin (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

3% Arizona (6:45 ET): I discussed this already on the Morning Wager, but the D’backs shouldn’t be underdogs to the Nationals, even if it’s ever so slightly and on the road. The two teams may have identical won-loss records, but the Nats still sit in the bottom six of my power rankings while Arizona is very much middle of the road. While there is no denying the fact that Washington has been playing better as of late (outscoring opponents by two full runs per game over the last week), the same is true for the D’backs, who have actually outscored their opponents by 3.2 rpg in the same stretch.

Slade Cecconi starts for Arizona tonight. Yes, he got bombed his last time out - at home - giving up seven runs in only three innings to the Angels. But on the road, Cecconi has been pretty good this season, posting a 2.73 ERA and 0.949 WHIP in five starts. Those are much better numbers than what he’s done at home, plus the team is actually 4-1 in those five starts on the road. Cecconi has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any road start AND he’s allowed just ONE run in three of the five. Washington has the inferior offense in this matchup, even at home where they are averaging just 4.3 runs per game. 

This number is a bit inflated due to the fact the Nationals swept the Marlins over the weekend. But while the Nats are now a perfect 7-0 vs. Miami this season, they are just 28-36 against everybody else. Jake Irvin starts for them here on Tuesday and while he’s turned in five consecutive quality outings, the team is still only 1-4 with him on the mound here at home. Irvin, like Cecconi, has pitched better on the road. He also doesn’t strike a ton of guys out (just 69 K’s in 81 IP) and the D’backs’ lineup has the 8th lowest K rate in all of MLB. Furthermore, the D’backs have scored 7+ runs in five of their last seven games. 3% Arizona (Play to -125)

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