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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(225465) England at (225466) Denmark

Event:
(225465) England at (225466) Denmark
Sport/League:
UEFA
Date/Time:
June 20, 2024 12PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-145
Play:
4% – (225465) England at (225466) Denmark REGULATION Total Under 2.5 (-145)
Result:
Win
Analysis

4% Under England/Denmark (12:00 ET): England are the tournament favorites here and opened up their Euro Cup campaign by beating Serbia 1-0, in what was one of the lower-event matches we’ve seen so far in the competition. Jude Bellingham struck relatively early (13’) for the The Three Lions, but that was it for the scoring as they had to desperately hold on in the second half to gain all three points. While the manager cited “resilience,” let’s not lose sight of the fact that Gareth Southgate’s side is as good as it gets defensively. They’ve now kept a record five consecutive clean sheets in the Group stage, going back to Euro 2021. 

Denmark were not as fortunate in the second half of their opening fixture as they let in an equalizer against Slovenia and things ended in a 1-1 draw. Christian Eriksen ended up as the lone goal scorer for Denmark. While the Danes obviously would have loved a second goal (from anyone!), Eriksen’s return to the pitch - after suffering cardiac arrest at the last Euros - is an incredible story. Despite them having to settle for the draw with Slovenia, this side will NOT “roll over” for England here. Going back to March of 2023, Denmark has been beaten only once in their last 13 international matches.  

Now they have just four wins in the previous 22 meetings with England, not the kind of history you want when desperate for three points. Plus, scoring a goal here will not be easy for the underdogs. But considering England had just five shots on goal and finished with 0.52 xG themselves in the opener, this should be another low-scoring match for the tournament favorites. In fact, the match vs. Serbia saw fewer total xG created (0.69) than any EPL match last season. I know that goal scoring has generally been aplenty in this Euro Cup, but this should prove to be the exception to the rule as four straight meetings between England and Denmark have stayed Under 2.5, with three of those seeing no more than one goal scored. 4% Under England/Denmark 2.5 or better (3% Play at 2.25)

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