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(509) Dallas Mavericks at (510) Boston Celtics

Event:
(509) Dallas Mavericks at (510) Boston Celtics
Sport/League:
NBA
Date/Time:
June 17, 2024 8PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-110
Play:
4% – (509) Dallas Mavericks at (510) Boston Celtics Total Under 209.5 (-110)
Result:
Win
Analysis

4% Take Boston - Dallas UNDER (#509-510)

The Under has gone 4-0 so far in this series, and there’s ample reason to expect another relatively low scoring game on Monday Night.  Dallas is facing elimination, and elimination games have a significant recent history of cashing Under bets.  Games 5, 6 and 7 of all NBA Series after the first round trend to the Under, at a better than 60% clip over the last decade plus.  And this Under trend passes the ‘does it make sense’ test -- after facing the same opponent four or more times in a row, it’s not like there are many offensive adjustments to be made. 

Here's an excerpt from what I wrote prior to cashing a winning bet on the Under in Game 2 of this series.  Numbers have been slightly edited to reflect current realities:

“We’re talking about two ELITE defensive teams here.  Boston ranked Top 3 in defensive efficiency for the full season; the Mavs were the single best defensive team in the league down the stretch, post All Star Break.  They’re both here, now, in large part due to their ability to clamp down on defense, especially during crunch time.  Boston has held their opponent to 102 points or less TWELVE TIMES in 18 games this postseason.  Neither team is going to play with pace, both teams in the 93-94 possessions per game range here in the postseason, significantly slower than ANY team played in the regular season. Neither team is going to get many easy buckets in transition against two teams that get back on defense – we’ve seen 24 fast break points or less (combined) in all four previous Finals games.”

The Mavs have allowed 110+ only three times in 21 previous playoff games and they’re coming off the first game all series where they effectively shut the Celtics down, start to finish. The Mavericks offensive strengths – corner three’s; Luke and Kyrie breaking down opponents in the paint – are both mitigated by the Celtics defensive strengths – seven footers packing the paint; #1 defensively in the NBA against corner 3’s.  Expect another Under to cash on Monday Night.  Take the UNDER.

Line Parameter: 4% at 209 or higher, 3% at 208.5 or lower

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