Recent Play Details

3% Lamelo Ball Under Points+Rebounds+Assists (7:10 ET): I think the oddsmakers have this game priced pretty accurately. The Celtics are the top team in the league right now, winning by an average margin of 11.7 points per game for the year and they’ve posted six straight victories. Meanwhile, Charlotte has dropped four straight and has the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference after three of those four straight losses have been by 14 points or greater.

So what I want to focus on here specifically is Hornets’ star Lamelo Ball, who has been busy turning in great individual performances in the midst of his team’s swoon. Ball has scored 25+ points in seven straight contests, the second longest such streak in franchise history, and has gone over 30 points in five of those seven games. But here he’s going to be matched up against a Celtics team that is top three defensively in both points allowed and efficiency. I expect Ball to struggle to score here, relatively speaking. Furthermore, I don’t think he can continue to shoot almost 45% from three like he has in these L7 games. 

When factoring in rebounds & assists, Ball is averaging 45.6 PRA over this amazing stretch. The PRA total for tonight is just below that. Factoring in that his scoring should decrease due to the Celtics’ defense, I think it’s time to fade Ball. In the last game, a 122-108 loss to the Knicks, he was a ridiculous 8 of 13 from three-point range. Sounds like it’s time to “cool off” to me. For the season, Ball is averaging 24.3 PPG, which is obviously good. But he’s averaging 5.1 rebounds and 8.1 assists per game. Add up those season long averages and you don’t get to this PRA number for tonight, which is great when considering the likely shooting regression. 3% Lamelo Ball Under Points+Rebounds+Assists (Play to 38.0)