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Syracuse (2:30PM ET ESPN2) – It’s a split on Sunday but overall a productive Thurs-Sun run to close out the week and we have some decent momentum into Feast Week. There’s College Basketball all day every day this week and we will start this busy stretch in the Maui Invitational when the Syracuse Orange take on the #7 Tennessee Volunteers at the Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, Hawaii. 

This is a spot I’ve had circled for Syracuse since before the season and I’m glad we got in early as this number is already moving down.  Syracuse is off to a 3-0 start but is 0-3 ATS since the Orange have been a sizeable favorite as the “superior” side in each.  This is a “new” Syracuse team, it’s the first year of the post-Jim Boeheim era and Adrian Autry is putting his own spin on things.  Syracuse is playing man to man close to 70 percent of the time and this is a Syracuse team that’s far more athletic than past seasons and one that’s putting emphasis on getting up and down the floor. Syracuse has had some growing pains, the Orange don’t shoot the ball collectively as well as they did a season ago and that nearly cost them last week against Colgate.  What Syracuse did well in that game was press, the Orange also turned it over just seven times and I think Autry is going to find a way to use the athleticism on his roster to offset lack of rebounding (Syracuse really misses Jesse Edwards in that regard) and poor shooting.  I think that makes Syracuse extremely appealing as an underdog because, while the Orange aren’t nearly as good of a basketball team as Tennessee is, if this game was on a playground these guys would probably be even.   The game isn’t on a playground but it is an early morning tip to kick off a MTE event in Hawaii, that could induce sloppier play which greatly benefits Syracuse here.  Tennessee wants to play physical, they want to defend and they are the type of team that doesn’t mind a scrap.  I think that somewhat plays into how Syracuse would like this game to go and I like the Orange to scrap their way to a cover here.

Another reason Syracuse might hang around here is Tennessee doesn’t have elite size up front.  There are things to like about Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka but neither are proven and watching Olivier Nkamhoua so far at Michigan makes me think that loss for Tennessee is somewhat understated right now.  Tennessee counters that by going guard heavy, and the Vols have some good ones in Zakai Zeigler, Santiago Vescovi, Dalton Knecht and Josiah Jordan-James but that also helps Syracuse as the Orange would prefer the game to be in the hands of star point guard Judah Mintz.  Syracuse has become a lot worse at shooting over teams with Joe Girard leaving for Clemson but JJ Starling is a far better athlete and he and Mintz will be able to hang around in a game where they can go at opposing guards and try to get to the rim. Tennessee also isn’t immune to going cold on offense, the Vols finished last season outside the Top 60 in KenPom offensive efficiency which leaves the door open for teams to hang around against the Vols. Tennessee can get a stop when they need it and can usually get buckets to close out games but winning by two touchdowns is an entirely different story and I think that’s going to be difficult for the Vols under the circumstances here. 

Tennessee will blow out teams that get frustrated offensively because their defense is so good that teams really have to put the extra effort in against them to get shots off.  I don’t think Syracuse is going to get frustrated because Syracuse has to know at this point they aren’t going to come out and bang a bunch of threes against anyone. Instead, Syracuse is going to let their athletic guards attempt to make plays and it’s possible that will work against this Tennessee team.  If it works even a little bit we should have ourselves a cover of a big number here.  Play on Syracuse +13.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)