Recent Play Details

4% Kansas City ML (8:15 ET): Both teams are coming off a bye, so they’re healthy for this Super Bowl rematch. You’re likely to hear quite a bit about Chiefs’ HC Andy Reid “off the bye,” but also pertinent to me here is that Patrick Mahomes is favored by less than a field goal at home. In his career, when an underdog or favored by -3 or less, Mahomes is 15-4-1 ATS. That was a big reason why I took the Chiefs last February in Super Bowl 57, a game they would obviously go on to win, 38-35. Now I got KC as 1.5-point underdogs for that particular matchup. With this one being played in Arrowhead, I sense a distinct possibility this number is heading to -3. So that all of you get a chance to cash, I am recommending a play on the money line. That’s how I’m playing it as I also want to avoid the outcome we had a couple weeks ago on Bucs-Texans. 

It’s also about time we start to look to fade the Eagles. Give them credit for having the league’s best SU record (8-1) but they are only 7th in point differential and 9th in DVOA. Not only is Philly NOT the best team in the league, they won’t even be the best team on the field Monday night. A 5-1 SU mark in one-score games, including two wins over the lowly Commanders, is a brand of good fortune that may not continue. The defense ranks just 19th in DVOA and the offense has definitely taken a step back relative to last year, which is partly because QB Jalen Hurts has been banged up. 

But the biggest difference between February and now is how much better the Chiefs’ defense is. They are #2 in the league in scoring (15.9 PPG allowed). Since the opening week loss to the Lions (no Travis Kelce), the Chiefs have given up more than 20 points only once and that was the shocking loss in Denver three weeks ago where Mahomes was also dealing with the flu. The following week, over in Europe, the defense held the Dolphins to 14 points in what should have been a larger MOV. I do believe it’s worth laying the extra juice for just a SU win, rather than laying the points. Hurts is just 3-7 SU as a dog in his career. 4% Kansas City ML (Play to -155)